Prices easing, auctions steady: reading the spring market
The Reserve Bank held in August and said house prices may have further to fall. Prices eased for a fourth month, yet the auction floor has held and lenders spent the month competing for borrowers. This edition covers our read on the numbers, three themes repeating beneath the headlines, what the banks did in August, and thirteen Saturdays of auction results pulled apart.
Our read on house prices and the market
The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, and paired the decision with a pointed observation: it expects house prices may have further to fall. The price data supports the caution as national home prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in July and now sit 1.8% below their March peak, though they remain 3.9% higher than a year ago.
| Market snapshot | |
|---|---|
| National home prices, July | -0.3% |
| National prices, 12 months | +3.9% |
| Sydney / Melbourne, July | -0.6% / -0.4% |
| National median value | $894,000 |
Home prices and median value: PropTrack Home Price Index, July 2026 (released 3 August).
Auctions tell a steadier story as after clearance rates ground down to a mid-July floor of 45.3% across the combined capitals, the past six weeks have held in the high 40s and low 50s, and the last weekend of winter came in at 52.4% on preliminary figures. Every capital except Brisbane firmed week on week, with Sydney and Melbourne both clearing above 54%. Melbourne has been the most resilient auction market in the country through winter.
| Auction clearance by city | w/e 30 Aug† | w/e 23 Aug |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 56.3% | 50.3% |
| Melbourne | 54.9% | 51.9% |
| Brisbane | 31.5% | 32.7% |
| Adelaide | 50.8% | 46.7% |
| Canberra | 41.7% | 40.9% |
| Combined capitals | 52.4% | 48.2% |
Cotality weekly auction results. †Week ending 30 August is preliminary; final figures are published the following Thursday and usually settle slightly lower. Perth omitted (fewer than 10 collected results).
An easing but orderly market rewards preparation over urgency. With the cash rate on hold, refinancing has been coming up more often in our conversations alongside rate movements and what to expect for the remainder of the year. If your loan was set before this year's rate rises, reach out for an interest rate review. It is quick, and it tells you exactly where you stand.
Beneath the headlines, three themes keep repeating
Pull together the auction rooms, the lending data, and the conversations running across the industry, and the same picture is forming. The first theme: buyers who stepped back this year skew investors. ABS lending figures for the June quarter show investor loan commitments falling almost three times as fast as owner-occupier commitments. That is why well-priced family homes are still finding buyers while the speculative end holds, and it's also why an owner-occupier faces thinner competition this spring than in any recent year, a good thing if you're currently in the market.
The second: prices are soft, but the cost of adding new supply is not. Construction costs are still rising, builder margins remain under pressure, and new listings have opened spring below their five-year average. A slowdown with that kind of supply picture underneath it tends to create a floor.
The third is the least reported, and it is happening inside the banks' own calculators. Through August, several lenders adjusted serviceability settings in ways that restore borrowing power, from how rental income is counted to how the budget's negative gearing changes are treated. If you were quoted a borrowing figure earlier this year, there is a fair chance it has moved. Reach out if you're interested to hear my perspective on this.
The lenders have started competing again
On rates, the mood shifted inside a fortnight. Early in August, soft jobs numbers had the market reading less chance of another rise. Then the Reserve Bank's minutes revealed the board had weighed a rise before holding, July's inflation came in sticky, and by month's end three of the four major banks were forecasting an increase before the end of the year.
Underneath the rate talk, lenders spent the month competing for borrowers. MA Money lifted its maximum loan sizes and lending ratios. Liberty became the first non-bank lender to join the federal 5% Deposit Scheme and brokers now arrange a record 80%+ of new home lending in Australia, which says something about how many borrowers want help navigating a market where lenders are moving in different directions at once.
The point is, when one lender tightens another loosens, the difference between a good outcome and an average one is knowing who is doing what this month. That is the work we do every day at FGO and we're here to help.
Thirteen Saturdays of auctions, pulled apart
Everyone has a view on property since the budget so we analysed thirteen Saturdays collecting every auction result across the capitals and built the picture from the ground up, one dot per auction to give you a more visual representation on trend lines.
Every dot on the page is a real auction and the analysis we did follows the market week by week from the May peak through the July floor, splits it city by city, and traces who actually left the market, with investor loan applications down 35% by value since February. If you want to understand the spring market beyond the headlines, this is worth five minutes.
Read the interactive data story →
Working out your own position?
Whether you are weighing a spring purchase, thinking about a refinance, or simply want to know what is possible at today's rates, your own circumstances are what matter. Reach out and we can work through it.