The fourth rise this year, and what it means for your loan
The cash rate rose to 4.60% on 29 September, the fourth rise this year. On an $800,000 loan that's about $124 more a month once it's passed on, and lenders usually pass it on within about two weeks, so now is the time to review. This edition covers what the rise means for your repayments, where prices and auctions sat through September, and why households pulled back while businesses bought property at a record pace.
What the rise to 4.60% means for your repayments
The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise this year and the highest since late 2011. The Board said it could increase the cash rate further “if needed,” and the next decision is on 3 November.
That's the first of the two rises I illustrated in my note in mid-September. Most of my recent conversations with home loan clients come back to the same question: stay variable, fix, or split? The answer depends on how much certainty your budget needs and how long you'll hold the loan, and it gets much clearer once you're looking at your own numbers.
Lenders usually pass a rise through to variable rates within about two weeks, so now is the window to check where your loan sits, before the higher repayment arrives. A rate review compares your rate with what lenders are offering today, and whether a fixed or split structure suits you.
Prices are still easing, and spring auctions are holding their ground
National home prices fell for a sixth straight month in September. They sit 3.3% below their March peak and are now just 0.1% higher than a year ago. Sydney and Melbourne remain the softest, down 5.0% and 5.2% over the year, as each rise cuts what buyers can borrow.
| Market snapshot | September |
|---|---|
| National home prices, September | -0.2% |
| National prices, 12 months | +0.1% |
| Below March peak | -3.3% |
| Sydney, 12 months | -5.0% |
| Melbourne, 12 months | -5.2% |
PropTrack Home Price Index, September 2026 (released 1 October).
Auctions have held up better than prices. Spring volumes lifted to 1,841 scheduled across the capitals in the week ending 20 September, and combined clearance rates sat between 46% and 53% through September, with the final week coming in at 46% over the AFL Grand Final weekend.
| Auction clearance by city | w/e 27 Sep | w/e 20 Sep |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 48.5% | 46.2% |
| Melbourne | 47.9% | 54.3% |
| Brisbane | 32.9% | 31.4% |
| Adelaide | 37.6% | 46.4% |
| Perth | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| Canberra | 51.9% | 53.6% |
| Combined capitals | 46.0% | 49.1% |
Cotality weekly auction results, final figures for the weeks ending 27 and 20 September.
If you had a pre-approval or a borrowing figure from earlier in the year, check it again before you bid. Your capacity has moved with every rise.
Households pulled back while businesses bought property at a record pace
In the June quarter, new home loan commitments fell 5.2% by value and investor lending fell 10.2%, while businesses put a record $27.2 billion into buying property. We pulled the split apart in a separate analysis, including what it means if you've been thinking about a commercial property or your own business premises.
Working out your own position?
If your loan is due for a review, you're weighing a purchase this spring, or you'd like to know what this rise means for you, get in touch and we can work through it.