Prices easing, rents climbing, and why units are outgrowing houses
Most of my conversations this month have circled the same question, which is whether it makes sense to buy while prices are still drifting. It is a fair question to be asking, and the numbers underneath it are more interesting than the headlines suggest. This edition covers the split running through the price data, why rents have not followed prices down, and a settlement on a blended income profile.
Prices are easing while rents keep climbing
National home prices fell for a third straight month in June, and underneath that number the picture varies a great deal. Sydney and Melbourne are easing while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are still setting record highs, and Melbourne remains the only capital where the median sits below where it was a year ago.
The split runs by dwelling type as well. Unit prices grew 6.7% over the year against 5.6% for houses, as buyers move to where the entry price is $266,000 lower. We mapped the divergence city by city, and by price tier within each city, if you want to see where your own market sits.
| What the wider data is signalling | |
|---|---|
| National home values, June | -0.3% m/m, +5.8% y/y |
| Perth / Brisbane / Adelaide, 12 months | +17.1% / +13.9% / +11.9% |
| Melbourne, 12 months | -1.1% (median $839K) |
| Units vs houses, 12 months | +6.7% / +5.6% |
| Auction clearance, capitals (w/e 26 Jul) | 49.7% |
Sources: PropTrack Home Price Index June 2026, Cotality Rental Review Q2 2026, and Cotality auction results for the week ending 26 July 2026 (final). Forecasts referenced below are drawn from Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand Economics Research, July 2026.
Rents have not followed prices down. National rents accelerated to 5.9% annual growth over the June quarter, and vacancy is holding at 1.6%, well below the five-year average. A typical renting household now puts roughly a third of its gross income to rent. For anyone waiting on the sidelines for prices to settle, the cost of waiting has been rising at the same time.
The commentary I have been reading and hearing points much the same way. Expect more volatility over the next year, with inflation still above target and no quick rate relief in sight. What the data also shows is resilience in certain pockets, and openings to buy into a broader market that has historically run hot and at the moment is not.
It is a good moment to take a step back and reassess what you are actually working towards. Our borrowing power calculator will give you a starting picture in a couple of minutes, and the precise number always comes down to your circumstances and the right lender.
Australia has never had more homes mid-build, so why are rents still rising?
There are 243,864 homes under construction across the country, an all-time record, while completions stay flat. That combination is the whole story of the rental squeeze in two numbers.
We built an interactive walkthrough of the four numbers that explain it, straight from the ABS data. Because a home finishing in 2028 has to be approved today, the pipeline effectively shows you the next two to three years of supply in advance. If you are deciding whether to buy now or keep renting a while longer, that pipeline is the clearest read available on which way rents are likely to move while you wait.
Client story: when your income comes from more than one place
We recently helped a couple in Melbourne who came to us with a purchase that looked simple, with some complexity sitting underneath it. We navigated a combination of employed and self-employed income, alongside a previous negative experience on a prior rental. They had also recently moved from interstate.
- A settled $670,000 facility.
- Assessed on a blended profile, with employed, self-employed and part-time income read together.
- The prior rental history addressed with the lender rather than left to be discovered.
Mixed income and a recent interstate move are two of the most common reasons a sound borrower looks weak on a first pass. Neither is a barrier by itself. It comes down to which lender reads the file the way it deserves to be read.
Every situation is different, which is why the outcome above is not a template.
Working out your own position?
Whether you are weighing a purchase while prices drift, deciding between a house and a unit, or wondering what is achievable on an income that does not fit a standard box, your own circumstances are what matter. Reach out and we can work through it.