A cooler auction market, a longer view, and a refinance about more than the rate
Around 42% of homes taken to auction across the combined capitals sold in late June, well below the clearance rates of a year ago. Much of the cooling is policy-driven, and it is worth being precise about what kind of slowdown this is. This edition covers the data, the longer view across past cycles, and a refinance that was about more than the rate.
The auction market has cooled sharply, and the reasons matter
In the week ending 21 June, around 42% of homes taken to auction across the combined capitals sold. Close to six in ten did not, well below the 60s and 70s of a year ago. The same softening runs right through the wider data.
| What the wider data is signalling | |
|---|---|
| National home value growth, past quarter | 1.6% to 0.6% |
| Sydney values, past quarter | -2.1% |
| Melbourne values, past quarter | -2.3% |
| Median vendor discount, combined capitals | 3.1% to 3.3% |
Dwelling values and vendor discount: combined capitals, three months to May 2026 (Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, June 2026). Auction clearance is the combined-capitals result for the week ending 21 June 2026 (Cotality, preliminary).
Much of this is policy-driven. The Budget's wind-back of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on established residential property, from 1 July 2027, is already weighing on investor demand. And on 23 June the Government confirmed it will ban new borrowing inside self-managed super funds to buy residential property, with existing arrangements and commercial property unaffected.
A cooler market is a sensible time to reassess where your own home or investments sit. If you would like to work through it, get in touch.
We have seen markets like this before
Having seen and invested through several property and credit cycles, the pattern is often familiar when the headlines are not. The GFC, the credit squeeze of 2018 and 2019, the early months of COVID. Each unsettled the market at the time, and each changed what buyers and owners could sensibly do. When sentiment turns, competition thins and vendors become more realistic on price, which can suit a prepared buyer.
It is worth being precise about the kind of slowdown this is. Prices in Sydney and Melbourne have eased for three months and investor demand is softer, but this remains a slowdown in turnover rather than a wave of forced selling. Most owners hold substantial equity, and fewer than 1% of borrowers are in negative equity on the RBA's figures. That is the difference between a cooler market and a distressed one.
Whether the right move for you is to buy, hold, refinance, or wait depends entirely on your own position. A shifting market tends to reward the people who know their numbers before they need them, and that is the part we can help with.
Knowing what is possible, before you need to
The part we focus on is what debt is achievable for you, because that is what turns a cooler market from a worry into a decision you can make with confidence. We built a few tools on our website so you can start that thinking before we speak, whether you want to understand your borrowing power, your repayments, or how the budget changes affect an investment:
They give you a clear starting picture. The precise number always comes down to your circumstances and the right lender, which is the conversation we are here for.
Client story: a refinance that was about more than the rate
A borrower came to us with two home loans, around $2.04M in total, sitting across two different banks. Neither bank had the full picture. Both loans were amortising on a shrinking remaining term, with a rate rise expected after the incumbent's repricing. This is exactly the kind of position worth reviewing while the market is quieter.
- Both loans refinanced from one major bank to another, a $1.6M owner-occupied loan and a $442K investment loan.
- Each loan reset to a full 30-year term, which lowered repayments before any rate movement.
- The investment facility picked up a modest rate reduction on top.
- Around $350 a month back in cash flow on the owner-occupied loan, before the avoided rate rise.
Refinancing is rarely just about the rate. Term, repayment structure, and which bank holds the relationship all move the outcome. If you have not reviewed your home loans in two years, there is very likely a better structure available.
Reviewing your position?
Whether you are weighing a purchase in a quieter market, thinking about a refinance, or simply want to know what is possible at today's rates, your own circumstances are what matter. Reach out and we can work through it.